Scientific Forecast for Shawwal Crescent Visibility
Pakistan is likely to celebrate Eid ul-Fitr 2025 on March 31, according to the latest moon sighting forecast by the Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco). The commission has provided a detailed astronomical analysis, indicating that the Shawwal crescent will most likely be visible across the country on the evening of March 30.
Formation of the New Moon & Visibility Timeline
Suparco’s scientific calculations state that the new moon for Shawwal 1446 Hijri will form on March 29 at 3:58 PM (Pakistan Standard Time). However, its sighting on the same evening is highly improbable due to its young age and low altitude in the sky.
By March 30—which marks the 29th Ramadan in Pakistan—the crescent will be approximately 27 hours old, making it easily visible to the naked eye after sunset. Additionally, the following factors increase the likelihood of a successful sighting:
- Moon Altitude at Sunset: 14 degrees
- Illumination Percentage: 2%
- Clear Sky Conditions: Enhancing visibility across multiple regions
The visibility of the crescent is always subject to atmospheric conditions, meaning clear skies would significantly improve the chances of spotting the Shawwal moon.
Moon Sighting in Saudi Arabia & Global Observations
The report also highlighted that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to witness the Shawwal crescent on March 29 due to its lower altitude and younger age at sunset. This suggests that the moon will likely be visible in the Kingdom on March 30, meaning that Pakistan and much of the Middle East may celebrate Eid on the same day—March 31.
Historically, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia sometimes observe Eid ul-Fitr on different days due to varying moon sighting methods and geographical differences. However, if both countries sight the moon on March 30, they will celebrate together this year.
Final Decision Rests with Ruet-e-Hilal Committee
Despite Suparco’s scientific forecast, the final announcement for Eid 2025 in Pakistan will be made by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee. The committee will convene on the evening of March 30 to analyze eyewitness reports from across the country, alongside scientific calculations, before making an official decision.
A spokesperson from Suparco clarified:
“While astronomical models strongly indicate a clear sighting on March 30, the final verdict will be based on ground observations and the Ruet-e-Hilal Committee’s official confirmation.”
Pakistan follows a dual approach to moon sighting—combining scientific data with traditional eyewitness testimonies. In previous years, the government has used Suparco’s lunar calculations to assist the Ruet-e-Hilal Committee in making a final decision.
Eid ul-Fitr 2025: Celebration Date in Pakistan
If the crescent is sighted as predicted, Ramadan will conclude with 29 fasts, and Eid ul-Fitr will be celebrated on Monday, March 31, 2025.
This means that Muslims across Pakistan will mark the joyous occasion of Eid with special prayers, family gatherings, festive meals, and acts of charity.